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26/02/2020: Coronavirus Covid-19, the Templar Nation’s Department of Health: no alarmism, no panic, but total awareness, the virus is not a simple flu

In an epidemic of an infectious disease, the BRN – Basic Reproduction Number, also called R0 (R zero), is particularly important and represents the average number of secondary infections produced by each infected individual in a completely susceptible population that is never come into contact with the new emerging pathogen.

This parameter measures the potential transmissibility of an infectious disease.

In the case of the Coronavirus Covid-19, the BRN is 2.5.

This means that on average, a single patient will infect at least two people.

How much higher is the value of R0, the higher the risk of spread of the epidemic.

If, on the other hand, the R0 value was less than 1, the epidemic could be contained.

To make Covid-19 no longer contagious, it is necessary to reduce the 2.5 value bringing it as close to zero, using every possible action (vaccine, containment and isolation of the infected, personal protection, hygiene measures).

Without these actions, the future scenario appears decidedly worrying.

Currently the mortality rate of Covid-19 is around 2%, so we can give a concrete example.

Let’s analyze Italy as an example:

– Italian population: around 60,000,000.

– Percentage of infection: about 25% (taking into account the value of R0 = 2.5).

– Mortality rate: about 2%.

Therefore, we have:

25% of 60,000,000 = 15,000,000 (maximum infected population).

2% of 15,000,000 = 300,000 (estimated number of deaths).

As can be seen, the number of deaths would be very high (around 300,000).

In the event of contagion of 25% of the Italian population, services would be blocked, hospitals would become clogged and the productivity of the country would be hit hard.

For this reason we must absolutely make every effort to reduce the potential transmissibility and follow the provisions of its Ministry of Health and the World Health Organization (WHO).

Comparing Covid-19 with the flu is absolutely wrong.

The flu has a BRN of 1.3 and a very low mortality rate (thanks also to vaccines).

Unlike seasonal flu, a known virus that changes its characteristics from year to year, Covid-19 is completely new, so no human being is immune and there are still no effective vaccines and drugs.

No alarmism, no panic, but total awareness, because Covid-19 is not a trivial influence.

This must be clear to everyone.

 

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